Monday, December 16, 2019

IBI Research On Avalon GloboCare: Hitting Mega Rallies

Summary
Amid ongoing pipeline advancement and increasing investor's awareness, Avalon's shares are rallying aggressively.
Riding a Trifecta, Avalon is most likely to deliver at least one blockbuster.
Of the countless CAR-Ts that I studied, I believe that AVA-101 is the most advanced drug. And, it will be made available to patients soon.
That aside, the regenerative medicine asset is set to reach patients in a similar time frame.
Despite the recent appreciation, the stock is still trading at 25% of its current true worth.
Does the management have a determination to continue to develop products or processes that will still further increase total sales potentials when the growth potentials of currently attractive product lines have largely been exploited? - Phillip Fisher
Among countless CAR-T innovators, I like Avalon GloboCare (NASDAQ:AVCO) the most. In my view, Avalon has the best CAR-T in the market. The reason is that its CAR-Ts are superior to conventional molecules. First, the company uses a non-viral vector for CAR-T gene delivery. Therefore, it limits the dreaded side effect, cytokine-release syndrome. Second, the firm employs the premier transposon technology which enables a greater bandwidth (i.e. two CAR-T targets). Third, there's a killed-switch to shut down the CAR-T in case the patient is not receptive. Fourth, the CAR-T can be made available to patients within days.
As you can see, Avalon has the best CAR-T in the market. And yet, it's still flying under Wall Street's radar. Not a lot of investors know about Avalon, except IBI members. The 25.5% rally that you recently saw is when more investors are becoming aware of this hidden treasure. In my view, there are significant further upsides. That's because I believe Avalon has several incoming high probability events. In this article, I'll feature a fundamental update on Avalon and provide my forward expectation on this Phillip Fisher growth equity.
Figure 1: Avalon chart (Source: StockCharts)

About The Company

As usual, I'll present a brief corporate overview for new investors. If you are familiar with the firm, I suggest that you skip to the subsequent section. Headquartered in Freehold, New Jersey, Avalon Globocare is dedicated to the innovation and commercialization of forefront medicines and disruptive diagnostics. Driven by tireless efforts, the company is poised to serve the global unmet needs in cancer and various diseases.
Using a trident-like approach of Poseidon, Avalon captures opportunities in three lucrative niches. They include exosomes diagnostics, regenerative medicine, and cellular immunotherapy (i.e. CAR-T). As shown below, the company is brewing several potential blockbusters, including AVA-101, -201, and -203.
Figure 2: Diagnostic and therapeutic pipeline (Source: Avalon)
About the diagnostic portfolio, Avalon harnesses the power of "exosomal biomarkers" to launch an avalanche against oral cancer, nonalcoholic steatohepatitis ("NASH"), leukemia, colorectal cancer, and macular degeneration. Though there are many different biomarkers, I strongly believe that using exosomes is ingenious. That's because exosomes can pinpoint a diagnosis to confer physicians an edge against deadly conditions.

Revealing Hidden Treasures

If you've been following my work, you'd notice know that I emphasize the need for top-notch management. In my view, the management is the hidden treasure of a mega growth stock. Even with a mediocre pipeline, prudent management can improve the company's prospects by in-licensing new medicines. Don't get me wrong. I'm not saying that Avalon has a subpar pipeline. In fact, the company has an extremely robust portfolio of multiple potential blockbusters.

Wednesday, November 13, 2019

IBI Research On Avalon: Fortressing Capital Structure And Strengthening Fundamentals

Summary
The drug pricing and the China Trade War concerns devastated the share price of most bioscience stocks. And, the aforesaid industry headwinds did not spare Avalon.
Due to a bearish bioscience market, Avalon's market valuation is now retraced significantly below its true worth.
Notwithstanding, there are powerful fundamental developments that substantially increased the intrinsic value of Avalon.
The next-generation CAR-T (AVA-001) is launched into the clinic. The Dragon CAR-T (AVA-101) is poised to reach patients in months while other franchises are developing at a rapid pace.
The capital structure is now strengthened as Avalon repurchased all outstanding warrants.
Every decade or so, dark clouds will fill the economic skies, and they will briefly rain gold. When downpours of that sort occur, it’s imperative that we rush outdoors carrying washtubs, not teaspoons. And that we will do. - Warren Buffett
Concerns relating to the China Trade War and drug pricing control have clobbered most bioscience stocks in recent months. For a significantly volatile sector, such news is like gasoline to fuel a raging wildfire. In the aftermath, the share price of a stellar CAR-T innovator dubbed Avalon GloboCare (NASDAQ:AVCO) receded into the deep South.
Facing this calamity, it can be easy for you to dispose of your stocks to cease that sickening feeling in your stomach associated with a stock decline. Be that as it may, you must focus on the big investing picture. Time after time, there will be war scare and dark clouds to paint the investing sky with a gloomy view. Nevertheless, the market has always risen to a higher level. Amid this difficulty, I strongly believe that there is an excellent opportunity to build shares in Avalon. In this research, I'll feature a fundamental update on Avalon and provide my expectation for this spectacular growth equity.
Figure 1: Avalon chart (Source: StockCharts)

About The Company

As usual, I'll feature a brief corporate overview for new investors. If you are familiar with the firm, I suggest that you skip to the subsequent section. Headquartered in Freehold New Jersey, Avalon is engaged in the development and commercialization of disruptive medicines and diagnostics to serve the strong unmet needs in cancer and various diseases. Using a trident-like approach of Poseidon, Avalon captures opportunities in three lucrative niches. They include exosomes diagnostics, regenerative medicine, and cellular immunotherapy (i.e. CAR-T).
For the diagnostic portfolio, Avalon harnesses the power of "exosomal biomarkers" to launch an avalanche against oral cancer, nonalcoholic steatohepatitis ("NASH"), leukemia, colorectal cancer, and macular degeneration. In general, biomarker diagnostic is an evolving field. And yet, the application of exosomal biomarkers is ingenious because it can promptly pinpoint a diagnosis to provide physicians an edge against dreaded diseases. When it comes to the fight for life, I believe that accuracy, precision, and timeliness are of paramount importance. As shown below, there are several potential blockbusters such as AVA-101, -201, and -203.
Figure 2: Diagnostic and therapeutic pipeline (Source: Avalon)

Monday, September 30, 2019

IBI Market Insight: To Profit From Value Disconnect

Summary
In recent years, stellar breakthroughs such as CAR-T and gene therapies painted the bioscience landscape.
Previously limited by expertise, we're witnessing an increasing number of companies brewing gene-editing molecules.
Precision medicine therapeutics and companion diagnostics are powering the next wave of innovation.
Nonetheless, the China Trade War and drug pricing pressure lead bioscience stocks to exchange hands at a deep discount.
At the turn of the next market cycle, the long-term oriented investors will enjoy sizable profits.
I like the idea of using artificial intelligence because we're so short of the real thing. - Charlie Munger
I hope that you guys had a great weekend. Asides from doing light tasks like posting on my social media, I shifted away from work during the weekend. In my view, it's best to conduct investment research and news analysis during weekdays. As family and God are matters of the heart, they should at least have the weekend. I believe it's more healthy and balance for you to reserve the weekend to rejuvenate and improve other arenas of life. After all, there is more to life than investing. And, the investment process is not a sprint. It's a marathon so pace yourself accordingly.
Figure 1: Charlie Munger and Warren Buffett (Source: Robyn Twomey)
That being said, I'd like to kick off the week with another series coined Market Insight. This publication is similar to the Industry Trends analysis that I conducted from time to time. Despite the resemblance, there are significant differences. Specifically, Market Insight explores current affairs that are driving broader market behaviors. Aside from providing you with the intelligence affecting your investment value, Market Insights offers various strategies to help you capitalize gains and minimize losses.

Thursday, September 5, 2019

IBI Research On Avalon: Poised For Market Conquest

Summary
Avalon's CAR-Ts are ahead of their time due to key advantages over conventional medicines. AVA-101 shuttles enough genes to decimate two oncology targets (CD19 and CD22).
In July 2019, Avalon launched its first CAR-T (AVA-001) into the clinic for relapsed/refractory acute lymphoblastic leukemia and non-Hodgkin lymphoma.
The most advanced CAR-T in the market (AVA-101) recently entered a process development and validation phase. As such, it will be advanced into human studies in 1Q2020.
The medical diagnostics franchise is progressing rapidly. AVA-201 will be made available in the clinic for oral cancer by 4Q2019. A regulatory filing is expected a year later.
The regenerative medicine segment is projected to deliver AVA-202 for diabetic wounds by year-end.
This idea was discussed in more depth with members of my private investing community, Integrated BioSci Investing. Get started today »
In the development phase, don't forget stability. And in stability, don't forget development. - Li Ka Shing (Billionaire Investor and Philanthropist)
Author's note: This an example of the IBI research available exclusively for our marketplace members.
A theme that I particularly like in bioscience investing is when a company layered excellent diversification within its pipeline. Diversification lowers investment risks while increasing the chances of finding a blockbuster. A prime example of this phenomenon is Avalon Globocare (NASDAQ:AVCO), as the company is gearing to hit a "trifecta." Accordingly, Avalon is brewing the next-generation CAR-T, precision medicine diagnostic, and regenerative medicine. Though all three franchises have a high probability of generating winners, you only need a single blockbuster for the stock to appreciate multiple folds.
What makes this investment enticing is that the shares have depreciated significantly due to the overall biotech downturn in recent months. As such, its financial and valuation are highly favorable. In this research, I'll feature a fundamental analysis of Avalon and provide my expectation for this stellar growth stock.
Figure 1: Avalon chart (Source: StockCharts)

About The Company

As usual, I'll deliver a brief corporate overview for new investors. If you are familiar with the firm, I suggest that you skip to the subsequent section. Operating out of Freehold New Jersey, Avalon is focused on the development and commercialization of disruptive medicines and diagnostics to serve the strong unmet needs in cancer and various diseases. Using a trident-like approach of Poseidon, Avalon captures opportunities in three lucrative niches. They include exosomes diagnostics, regenerative medicine, and cellular immunotherapy.

Thursday, August 29, 2019

Amarin: Elucidating Bullish And Bearish Claims

Summary
The Vascepa recommendation as the standards of care by both the American Diabetes Association and American Heart Association are stellar developments that foretell robust growth ahead.
The upcoming supplemental new drug application decision for Vascepa is the ultimate catalyst that will catapult Vascepa sales by multiple folds.
Amid overwhelming odds of approval, the recent Prescription Drug User Fee Act delay still incites fear of a negative regulatory binary.
This idea was discussed in more depth with members of my private investing community, Integrated BioSci Investing. Get started today »
Calling someone who trades actively in the market an investor is like calling someone who repeatedly engages in one-night stands a romantic. - Warren Buffett
In bioscience investing, you are certain to encounter much volatility. Due to the notion that what went up must goes down, it seems to me that a rallied stock is more volatile than other equities. Facing the market's whim, it's important for shareholders to properly interpret the ongoing saga of your stocks. As such, you can avoid selling out prematurely on spectacular performers. Equally important, you can build shares in promising companies during opportunistic occasions.
The aforesaid phenomenon exemplifies the investment thesis on Amarin Corporation (AMRN). In light of a regulatory delay, the market sentiment now shifted out of favor for Amarin. Nonetheless, the development of the overall fundamentals is quite robust. By empowering yourself with market intelligence, you can make an informed decision rather than being victimized. In this research, I'll present a fundamental analysis of Amarin while dissecting bullish and bearish views.
Figure 1: Amarin chart (Source: StockCharts)

About The company

As usual, I'll provide a brief corporate overview for new investors. If you are familiar with the firm, I recommend that you skip to the subsequent section. Based in Bedminster New Jersey and Dublin Ireland, Amarin is focused on the innovation and commercialization of therapeutics to serve the strong unmet needs in cardiovascular health. Powered by its expertise in lipid science, Amarin successfully developed and commercialized icosapent ethyl (Vascepa) in the U.S. using an in-house sales force.
Figure 2: Therapeutic pipeline (Source: Amarin)

Friday, August 23, 2019

Amarin: A Competitive Intelligence Analysis On Vascepa


Summary
Hindsight is 20/20 yet higher-level intelligence drives future profits. As such, I focus on forecasting the upcoming regulatory binary for Vascepa's label expansion and other corporate developments.
Despite Vascepa's dominant position, there are competing molecules such as Lovaza and over-the-counter Omega-3 supplement (OOS) that investors should assess.
In the spirit of sharing, I'll present part of what I discussed today inside my private investment community earlier than usual.
The best thing that happens to us is when a great company gets into temporary trouble ... We want to buy them when they're on the operating table. - Warren Buffett
As the weekend is winding down, I'll conduct competitive intelligence analysis on Amarin Corporation (AMRN). The inspiration from a ScienceDirect article that an Integrated BioSci Investing ("IBI") member shared catalyzed this analysis. As such, I'd like to express my gratitude to all IBI members for your continuous intellectual generosity. Equally important, I appreciate the counter-viewpoint. And, I encourage you to continue sharing your inputs.
In my view, IBI is a community where we learn from one another to become better investors. Therefore, all respectful debates are welcoming. By dissecting opposing arguments, we can learn about an investing thesis on a deeper level where most value resides. Without further ado, I'll take a deep-dive into this commentary.
Figure 1: Amarin chart (Source: StockCharts)
Accordingly, I found the recent article on Vascepa's competitor intriguing for various reasons. Notwithstanding, they all underlies the "impurity" and "subpar quality" of over-the-counter supplements (i.e. OOS), which I attributed to their regulatory laxity. The author remarked,
Elucida Research in Beverly, MA, found that Omega-3 fatty acid (3FA) levels fluctuated greatly from product to product, from as low as 33% to as high as 79%. However, it also determined that high levels of saturated fat and oxidized 3FA found in the supplements may actually undermine their possible health benefits.
As Elucida elucidated, one can best hope for a 79% Omega-3 from OOS. Adding further injury to insult, I believe that the aforementioned 79% is not pure eicosapentaenoic acid (EPA) like Vascepa. Asides from "fillers and oxidized Omega-3," OOS harbors the silent cardiovascular-disease inciter (i.e. docosahexaenoic acid or DHA).
Specifically, research proved that DHA raises the level of low-density lipoprotein (i.e. bad cholesterol or LDL-C), the culprit of heart diseases. As such, when you consume OOS or other Omega-3 products (Lovaza), they contain both DHA and EPA. Consequently, the health benefits - triglyceride ("TG") and cardiovascular risk reduction from EPA - are neutralized by DHA's LDL-C elevating effect.
As proof in the pudding of Vascepa dominance, there is a "fundamental shift" in the medical guideline. In the August Advisory, the American Heart Association (AHA) shined the light into DHA by explicating its negative health consequences.
Figure 2: AHA recommendation (Source: AHA)
As the truth is revealed, the AHA switched stance to endorse pure EPA. The endorsement comes on top of the Vascepa recommendation as Standards of Care by the American Diabetes Association (ADA) in March.

Wednesday, August 21, 2019

Aimmune: Contextualizing The ICER Statement

Summary
Aimmune published highly robust Phase 3 (RAMSES, ARTEMIS, and PALISADE) data for AR101. Therefore, the drug is positioned to gain FDA approval for treating peanut allergy by January 2020.
Nonetheless, ICER recently issued a report that questioned the utility of desensitization therapies for peanut allergy.
As opinions rather than facts, the ICER statement is a theory that is used to generate discussion. As such, they do not have any material impact on AR101's approval.
This idea was discussed in more depth with members of my private investing community, Integrated BioSci Investing. Get started today »
The stock market is designed to transfer money from the active to the patient. - Warren Buffet
In bioscience investment, it's crucial to filter out opinions from facts. Despite that you hold a fundamentally sound company, you will face streams of negative market opinions. To stay grounded, it's imperative for you to conduct research due diligence to know when the news is simply a "head fake." This phenomenon is best epitomized by the investment thesis on a food allergy innovator dubbed Aimmune Therapeutics (AIMT).
Though Aimmune delivered extremely robust clinical outcomes for the Phase 3 (RAMSES, ARTEMIS, and PALISADE) trials, its desensitization therapy has been the subject of market negativity. The latest discussion originated from the Institute for Clinical and Economic Review. Notwithstanding, the intelligent Aimmune shareholders are undeterred because such news is simply opinion rather than fact. In this research, I'll present a fundamental analysis of Aimmune while dissecting the negative arguments.
Figure 1: Aimmune chart (Source: StockCharts)

About The Company

As usual, I'll deliver a brief corporate overview for new investors. If you are familiar with the firm, I suggest that you skip to the subsequent section. Headquartered in Brisbane California, Aimmune Therapeutics is focused on the innovation and commercialization of medicines to serve the food allergy market. As the crown jewel of the pipeline, AR101 is an oral biologic for peanut allergy. Designed by the characterized oral desensitization immunotherapy (i.e. CODIT) platform, AR-101 is a powerful preventative (i.e. prophylactic) therapy. Asides from AR101, Aimmune is expanding its development to serve the unmet needs in other food allergies such as egg and walnut.
Figure 2: Therapeutic pipeline (Source: Aimmune)